JD Vance: Remarks, May 26, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his roundtable on Anti-Fraud Initiatives?
Markets
23 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | 68%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 52%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Hospice | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 36%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 68%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 59%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 59%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 49%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Newsom | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Shirley | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 35%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Daycare / Childcare | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Learing | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat 3+ times | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| PPP / Paycheck Protection Program | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 17%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 16%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 15%n=28 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26MAY26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP