JD Vance: Remarks, Jul 8, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks combatting fraud?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during remarks in Milwaukee?
Markets
45 words · 21 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 49%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 48%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 42%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Technology | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Today | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wisconsin 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 41%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 40%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 36%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | Yes | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 34%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat 3+ times | Yes | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 31%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Bipartisan | Yes | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | 17%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | 54%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Walz | No | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 15+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somalia / Somalian / Somali | No | 45%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Demographic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Employment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Resilience / Resiliency | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World Cup | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 36%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mitigate | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Lamborghini / Ferrari | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Common Sense | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Newsom | No | 22%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 21%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Corruption | No | 20%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 20%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 16%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 14%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 14%n=41 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26JUL08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP