JD Vance: Interview, Jun 16, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Gutfeld!?
Markets
15 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 19%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 56%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota | No | 55%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 54%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Learing / Shirley | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pope | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 250 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | 49%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 48%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Newsom | No | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| FBI / Kash | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26JUN16D · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP