JD Vance: Press conference, Jun 4, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his press conference?
Markets
23 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | 65%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 60%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | No | 59%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 55%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Hospice | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 53%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 50%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| DOJ / FBI | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 47%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Vivek / Ramaswamy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Newsom | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 38%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 28%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat 3+ times | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Learing | No | 27%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Daycare / Childcare | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 22%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 19%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26JUN04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP