JD Vance: Press conference, Apr 7, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his bilateral meetings with Prime Minister of Hungary?
Markets
20 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Deal / Settle | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 31%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 18%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 58%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 53%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| F-15 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NASA / Moon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rescue / Rescued | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America First | No | 27%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26APR07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP