JD Vance: Interview, Aug 5, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during Fox News: The Ingraham Angle?
Markets
17 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 64%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 50%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 49%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 46%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 45%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 29%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 28%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 50%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 45%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 39%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 39%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 34%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 32%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | 21%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26AUG05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP