JD Vance: Remarks, Mar 13, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks in North Carolina?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during remarks at Rocky Mount on March 13?
Markets
40 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Dream | Yes | 76%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 66%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalian | Yes | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 56%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 55%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Crazy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 27%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | No | 71%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border 4+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Midnight Hammer | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorism / Terrorist | No | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Gasoline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God / Hell 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hottest | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 42%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 42%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Made in America | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel | No | 33%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 33%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Middle Class | No | 29%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Cuba | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 19%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 19%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 11%n=18 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-JD26MAR12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP