JD Vance: Remarks, Mar 18, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Michigan?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during remarks in Michigan on March 18?
Markets
37 words · 22 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Dream | Yes | 69%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 69%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 62%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 60%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 59%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crazy | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 53%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 6+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturing 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorism / Terrorist | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 30%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| American Made / Made in America | Yes | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 27%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Middle Class / Working Class | Yes | 24%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | 22%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 60%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 36%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake News | No | 34%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation 3+ times | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 22%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 16%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 16%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender / Radical Left | No | 13%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 10%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-JD26MAR18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP