JD Vance: Interview, Jun 30, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during Fox News: The Ingraham Angle?
Markets
17 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | Yes | 44%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 43%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 38%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 32%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 31%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 56%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 44%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Reflecting / Pool | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 35%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 33%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 33%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 31%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | No | 21%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 12%n=21 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26JUN30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP