JD Vance: Remarks, Jun 17, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks on the fraud crackdown?
Markets
23 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 42%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Mamdani / Hochul | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 27%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat 3+ times | Yes | 21%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | 60%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 55%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 54%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 53%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somalian / Somali | No | 49%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 43%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 38%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 35%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Newsom | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 23%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | 23%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Learing | No | 22%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Daycare / Childcare | No | 22%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 19%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 16%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 13%n=37 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26JUN17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP