Will Donald Trump say “Trump Derangement Syndrome / TDS”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trump Derangement Syndrome / TDS” at 38 of 61 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 4, 2024 (62%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=61, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 27, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 3 later appearances without a transcript yet (since Oct 26, 2026) are not counted.
61%from settlement history only · n=61Next: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 100¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Trump Derangement Syndrome / TDS
- Probability
- 61% · n=61
- Settled
- 38/61 (62%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 60 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Trump Derangement Syndrome / TDS |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (7 of 34 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 25, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 18, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 11, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (16 of 18 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 6, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (5 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 23, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (5 of 6 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 16, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (10 of 15 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (8 of 12 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 12, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | 10 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (9 of 13 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 14, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jun 7, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 31, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 24, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 17, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 10, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 3, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 26, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 26, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 19, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 12, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 5, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 31, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 22, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 15, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 15, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 8, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 1, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 22, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 15, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 8, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 2, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 25, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 18, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 12, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 5, 2026 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 29, 2025 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 22, 2025 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 15, 2025 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 8, 2025 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 24, 2025 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 17, 2025 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 10, 2025 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 3, 2025 | TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Trump Derangement Syndrome / TDS”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trump Derangement Syndrome / TDS” at 38 of 61 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 4, 2024 (62%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Trump Derangement Syndrome / TDS” next time?
- 61%, from settlement history (n=61). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome / TDS’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/tds-or-trump-derangement-syndrome (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tds%20%2F%20trump%20derangement%20syndrome · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP