Donald Trump: Weekly window, Dec 22, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Dec 15, 2025 to Dec 22, 2025. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
28 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 79%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 75%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 75%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | – | 0 | 71%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | – | 0 | 70%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | – | 0 | 70%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | Yes | – | 0 | 67%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | 66%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | Yes | – | 0 | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Christmas | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somali / Somalian | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | – | 0 | 59%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics | Yes | – | 0 | 56%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | – | 0 | 41%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | Yes | – | 0 | 16%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | – | 0 | 64%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Beef | No | – | 0 | 62%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | – | 0 | 50%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | – | 0 | 48%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Argentina | No | – | 0 | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fat Shot / Ozempic | No | – | 0 | 37%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 34%n=206 from settlement history | – |
| No | – | 0 | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – | |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 28%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | – | 0 | 28%n=37 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-25DEC22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP