Donald Trump: Weekly window, Dec 15, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Dec 8, 2025 to Dec 15, 2025. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
28 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 78%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 74%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 73%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | – | 0 | 68%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | – | 0 | 67%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | – | 0 | 67%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | – | 0 | 58%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Beef | Yes | – | 0 | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | 55%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Christmas | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Somalia / Somali / Somalian | Yes | – | 0 | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics | Yes | – | 0 | 50%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | – | 0 | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | – | 0 | 49%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | – | 0 | 41%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Argentina | Yes | – | 0 | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | No | – | 0 | 67%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | – | 0 | 52%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | – | 0 | 51%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Fat Shot / Ozempic | No | – | 0 | 40%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 36%n=199 from settlement history | – |
| No | – | 0 | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – | |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 29%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | – | 0 | 22%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 17%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-25DEC15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP