Donald Trump: Weekly window, Jan 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Jan 5, 2026 to Jan 12, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
27 words · 21 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mental Institution | Yes | – | 0 | 79%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | – | 0 | 76%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 74%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 72%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | – | 0 | 68%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | – | 0 | 66%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| IQ | Yes | – | 0 | 65%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | Yes | – | 0 | 61%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somali / Somalian | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | – | 0 | 57%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics | Yes | – | 0 | 55%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | – | 0 | 51%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | – | 0 | 50%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 49%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | – | 0 | 45%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | – | 0 | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Stimulus / Dividend | Yes | – | 0 | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | – | 0 | 37%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | 27%n=221 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | Yes | – | 0 | 22%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | – | 0 | 70%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | – | 0 | 60%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | No | – | 0 | 58%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Nine War | No | – | 0 | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 32%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 24%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26JAN12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP