Donald Trump: Weekly window, Oct 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
8 known appearances0 of 8 known appearances transcribed Window: Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 5, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 126 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (19 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Sep 28, 2026 Donald Trump: Announcement transcript pending
- Sep 29, 2026 Donald Trump: Remarks at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium transcript pending
- Sep 30, 2026 Donald Trump: Announcement transcript pending
- Sep 30, 2026 Donald Trump: Hispanic Heritage Month Celebration transcript pending
- Oct 1, 2026 Donald Trump: Rally in Oklahoma transcript pending
- Oct 1, 2026 Donald Trump: Remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company transcript pending
- Oct 2, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Alabama transcript pending
- Oct 3, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Ohio transcript pending
Markets
37 words · 22 settled yes · our count agreed on 7 of 7- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | Yes | 2 | 22 | ✓ | 80%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 86%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 1 | 5 | ✓ | 85%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 75%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 71%n=177 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 64%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 57%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | – | 1 | – | 78%n=239 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | – | 0 | – | 78%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | – | 0 | – | 73%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / Canadian | Yes | – | 0 | – | 69%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | – | 67%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | – | 0 | – | 66%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | – | 0 | – | 59%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Voter ID | Yes | – | 0 | – | 59%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | – | 0 | – | 58%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | – | 0 | – | 57%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | – | 4 | – | 57%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | Yes | – | 0 | – | 54%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | – | 1 | – | 53%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Third Term | Yes | – | 0 | – | 46%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | Yes | – | 0 | – | 31%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | – | 0 | – | 47%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | – | 0 | – | 42%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | – | 0 | – | 41%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | – | 36%n=511 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | – | 0 | – | 35%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | No | – | 0 | – | 28%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | – | 28%n=135 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | – | 0 | – | 26%n=118 from settlement history | – |
| Make Iran Great Again | No | – | 0 | – | 24%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | – | 19%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | – | 0 | – | 18%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | – | 17%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | – | 17%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | – | 14%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | – | 12%n=56 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26OCT05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP