Donald Trump: Weekly window, Dec 8, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Dec 1, 2025 to Dec 8, 2025. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
29 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 81%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 73%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 69%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | – | 0 | 68%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | Yes | – | 0 | 66%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | 63%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | – | 0 | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics | Yes | – | 0 | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | 55%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Beef | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | – | 0 | 47%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | – | 0 | 47%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | – | 0 | 45%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Argentina | Yes | – | 0 | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | Yes | – | 0 | 23%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | – | 0 | 71%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | – | 0 | 60%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| BBC | No | – | 0 | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | – | 0 | 55%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Sedition | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maduro | No | – | 0 | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Fat Shot / Ozempic | No | – | 0 | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 39%n=194 from settlement history | – |
| No | – | 0 | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – | |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 31%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 19%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-25DEC08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP