Donald Trump: Weekly window, Aug 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
15 known appearances10 of 15 known appearances transcribed Window: Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 3, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 115 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (37 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Jul 27, 2026 Remarks During a Tour of the General Motors Proving Ground in Milford, Michigan Official transcript
- Jul 27, 2026 Remarks in an Exchange With Reporters Aboard Air Force One En Route to Waterford Township, Michigan Official transcript
- Jul 28, 2026 Donald Trump: Fox News: Fox & Friends no transcript source yet
- Jul 28, 2026 Remarks During a Telerally for Tennessee Republican Congressional Candidate Representative Andrew Ogles Official transcript
- Jul 28, 2026 Donald Trump: Meeting with Netanyahu transcript pending
- Jul 28, 2026 Donald Trump: Meeting with Zelenskyy transcript pending
- Jul 28, 2026 Eulogy at the Funeral Service for Senator Lindsey O. Graham Official transcript
- Jul 29, 2026 Donald Trump: Tele-Rallies on July 29 transcript pending
- Jul 29, 2026 Remarks During a Telerally for Wisconsin Republican Congressional Candidate Michael Alfonso Official transcript
- Jul 29, 2026 Remarks During a Telerally for Kansas Republican Gubernatorial Candidate State Senator Ty Masterson Official transcript
- Jul 29, 2026 Donald Trump: Announcement with the Secretary of Transportation transcript pending
- Jul 29, 2026 Remarks on Efforts To Renovate Washington Dulles International Airport and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Jul 30, 2026 Remarks on Announcing the Freedom Haulers Initiative Official transcript
- Jul 31, 2026 Remarks Prior to a Cabinet Meeting and an Exchange With Reporters at Camp David, Maryland Official transcript
- Aug 2, 2026 Remarks in an Exchange With Reporters Aboard Air Force One En Route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland Official transcript
Markets
32 words · 19 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transgender | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 73%n=186 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | 7 | 12 | ✓ | 66%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 7 | 13 | ✓ | 59%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 84%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 5 | 8 | ✓ | 56%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 69%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 75%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 54%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 66%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 52%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 25%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 80%n=135 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 69%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 57%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 50%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | 1 | 7 | ✓ | 36%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | – | 65%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | Yes | – | 9 | – | 53%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | – | 0 | – | 70%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | No | – | 0 | – | 61%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | – | 0 | – | 59%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | – | 0 | – | 44%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| American Flag Blue | No | – | 0 | – | 40%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | – | 1 | – | 37%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | – | 36%n=455 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | – | 24%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | No | – | 0 | – | 23%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | – | 21%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | – | 20%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | – | 20%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | – | 17%n=53 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26AUG03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP