Donald Trump: Weekly window, Aug 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
6 known appearances5 of 6 known appearances transcribed Window: Aug 17, 2026 to Aug 24, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 192 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (22 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Aug 17, 2026 Remarks During a Greeting With California State Parks Lifeguard Ryder Williams and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Aug 19, 2026 Remarks on the Construction of the South Lawn Helipad and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Aug 19, 2026 Remarks in a Meeting With Technology Leaders and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Aug 20, 2026 Donald Trump: Remarks in the White House Rose Garden transcript pending
- Aug 21, 2026 Remarks at a Campaign Rally for South Carolina Republican Senatorial Candidate Senator Darline Graham Nordone in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina Official transcript
- Aug 21, 2026 Remarks and an Exchange With Reporters Prior to Departure From Joint Base Andrews, Maryland Official transcript
Markets
31 words · 15 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballroom | Yes | 28 | 38 | ✓ | 70%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 10 | 23 | ✓ | 36%n=482 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 9 | 10 | ✓ | 74%n=213 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | Yes | 9 | 12 | ✓ | 21%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 67%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 74%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 5 | 6 | ✓ | 60%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 84%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 67%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| JD / Vance | Yes | 2 | 21 | ✓ | 44%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 17%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 68%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 62%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | – | 1 | – | 62%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | – | 0 | – | 80%n=156 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | No | – | 0 | – | 72%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | – | 1 | – | 68%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | – | 0 | – | 64%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | – | 0 | – | 55%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | – | 0 | – | 55%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | – | 0 | – | 52%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | – | 0 | – | 51%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | – | 1 | – | 51%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | – | 0 | – | 39%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | No | – | 0 | – | 39%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | – | 0 | – | 34%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | – | 0 | – | 28%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | – | 19%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 2 | – | 16%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | – | 16%n=45 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26AUG24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP