Donald Trump: Posts, week ending Oct 25, 2026

Sun, Oct 25Posts windowOfficial postsLiveDonald Trump

Polymarket lists 12 words for Donald Trump’s posts in the week ending Oct 25, 2026; 4 have settled so far, 4 of them Yes. Parrot’s count agreed with 3 of 3 checked settlements.

Updated

Markets

12 words · 4 settled yes · our count agreed on 3 of 3

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Russia Yes59✓71%n=86 from settlement history–
Genius / Elon / Musk Yes56✓42%n=125 from settlement history–
Scam / Scum Yes11✓41%n=33 from settlement history–
China Yes–2–80%n=185 from settlement history–
Israel open–0–52%n=76 from settlement history62¢ Polymarket
Flying Car / Roadster open–0––new new word, no probability yet37¢ Polymarket
Moon / UFO / UAP open–0–42%n=66 from settlement history50¢ Polymarket
Trump Ocean / Trump Strait open–0–40%n=6 from settlement history38¢ Polymarket
Greenland open–0–38%n=61 from settlement history50¢ Polymarket
Allah open–0–31%n=8 from settlement history37¢ Polymarket
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency open–0–17%n=58 from settlement history41¢ Polymarket
Ceasefire / Uranium open–0–15%n=176 from settlement history49¢ Polymarket

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.

Posts

counts only; post text is not shown

Truth Social posts by @realDonaldTrump, via CNN's public archive · The posts

Counted from 202 posts by @realDonaldTrump, Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026 (64 reposts left out). The window is still open: counts grow as posts arrive. Post text is used for counting only and is not reproduced here. Counts: post text (reposts excluded; image text counts).

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-25:posts_window · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-25:posts_window · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP