Donald Trump: Weekly window, Feb 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Jan 27, 2026 to Feb 3, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
27 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mental Institution | Yes | – | 0 | 84%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 79%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | – | 0 | 75%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 69%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | Yes | – | 0 | 69%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| IQ | Yes | – | 0 | 68%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | – | 0 | 67%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | 66%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somali / Somalian | Yes | – | 0 | 61%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Cookie | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | – | 0 | 59%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | 59%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | Yes | – | 0 | 28%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics | No | – | 0 | 66%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Penguin | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | – | 0 | 51%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | – | 0 | 50%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Insurrection Act | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | – | 0 | 49%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | 45%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | – | 0 | 43%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 34%n=244 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 21%n=22 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26FEB02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP