Donald Trump: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026

By Oct 31Monthly windowHistory onlyDonald Trump

Updated

Coverage

31 known appearances
5 of 31 known appearances transcribed Window: Oct 1, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump. Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.

Markets

22 words · 18 settled yes · our count agreed on 6 of 6

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Six Seven Yes68✓41%n=74 from settlement history–
Central Casting Yes55✓46%n=15 from settlement history–
Who Are You With / Where Are You From Yes22✓64%n=47 from settlement history–
Stupid Person Yes22✓54%n=5 from settlement history–
Front Row Joe Yes11✓49%n=2 from settlement history–
Gay Yes11✓39%n=14 from settlement history–
Slob Yes–0–64%n=2 from settlement history–
American Dream Yes–0–64%n=34 from settlement history–
Through the Roof Yes–0–63%n=18 from settlement history–
Shit Yes–0–61%n=5 from settlement history–
Trump Derangement Syndrome / TDS Yes–0–61%n=57 from settlement history–
Ass Yes–0–60%n=16 from settlement history–
Teleprompter Yes–0–54%n=7 from settlement history–
Caddie Yes–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Newborn Yes–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Shut Up Yes–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Caravan Yes–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Refund Yes–0–46%n=3 from settlement history–
Dancing in the Street open–0–57%n=2 from settlement history39¢ Polymarket
Illness open–0––new new word, no probability yet48¢ Polymarket
Neurotic open–0––new new word, no probability yet48¢ Polymarket
Weave open–0–50%n=6 from settlement history46¢ Polymarket

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-in-october-2026 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP