Donald Trump: Weekly window, May 3, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Apr 27, 2026 to May 4, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
31 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 83%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| 50,000 | Yes | – | 0 | 79%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 78%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 76%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | – | 0 | 75%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 73%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | 70%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | – | 0 | 69%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | Yes | – | 0 | 66%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | Yes | – | 0 | 66%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | – | 0 | 65%n=209 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | – | 0 | 65%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | 59%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Mutilation / Mutilization | Yes | – | 0 | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Warsh | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | – | 0 | 50%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | Yes | – | 0 | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | – | 0 | 61%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | No | – | 0 | 60%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pope | No | – | 0 | 54%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | No | – | 0 | 52%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 49%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 38%n=349 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | 33%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Discombobulator | No | – | 0 | 22%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | 14%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | – | 0 | 14%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 13%n=37 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26MAY04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP