Donald Trump: Episode, Apr 26, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during 60 Minutes?
Markets
37 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 63%n=126 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 54%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| King | Yes | 36%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | Yes | 32%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Secret Service | Yes | 31%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 29%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 64%n=234 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 63%n=133 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | 60%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 55%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | No | 54%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | No | 52%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | No | 52%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | 51%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 51%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 50%n=145 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 48%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 47%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 47%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 43%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / DHS | No | 42%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 41%n=208 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 39%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | No | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 34%n=131 from settlement history | – |
| Reschedule / Rescheduled | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unify / Unified | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Butler | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| JD / Vance | No | 32%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Save America Act | No | 31%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Lincoln | No | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fight Fight Fight | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 15%n=348 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-26APR26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP