Donald Trump: Weekly window, Sep 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
5 known appearances3 of 5 known appearances transcribed Window: Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 21, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 100 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (9 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Sep 16, 2026 Remarks and an Exchange With Reporters Upon Arrival in Charlotte, North Carolina Official transcript
- Sep 17, 2026 Remarks During a Telerally for Virginia Republican Congressional Candidates Representatives Robert J. Wittman, Jennifer Kiggans, and John McGuire Official transcript
- Sep 17, 2026 Donald Trump: Tele-rally with Rob Wittman transcript pending
- Sep 17, 2026 Remarks at a Rose Garden Club Dinner Official transcript
- Sep 18, 2026 Donald Trump: Announcement on healthcare transcript pending
Markets
37 words · 18 settled yes · our count agreed on 10 of 10- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 70%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 87%n=112 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 79%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / Canadian | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 51%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 46%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 78%n=234 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 77%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 70%n=174 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 64%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | – | 0 | – | 83%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | – | 0 | – | 73%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Voter ID | Yes | – | 0 | – | 56%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Obamacare | Yes | – | 0 | – | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | – | 0 | – | 50%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | – | 47%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | – | 0 | – | 44%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Third Term | Yes | – | 0 | – | 38%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | – | 0 | – | 69%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | No | – | 0 | – | 68%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | No | – | 0 | – | 60%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | No | – | 0 | – | 60%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | – | 0 | – | 56%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | – | 39%n=503 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | – | 0 | – | 38%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | – | 0 | – | 37%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | No | – | 0 | – | 34%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | – | 0 | – | 32%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | – | 31%n=133 from settlement history | – |
| Make Iran Great Again | No | – | 0 | – | 29%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | – | 0 | – | 22%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | – | 21%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | – | 19%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | – | 18%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | – | 14%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | – | 13%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | – | 0 | – | 13%n=110 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26SEP21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP