Donald Trump: Weekly window, Dec 1, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Nov 24, 2025 to Dec 1, 2025. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
29 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thug | Yes | – | 0 | 72%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 71%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 67%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | – | 0 | 67%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | 66%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | – | 0 | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| IQ | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Beef | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | Yes | – | 0 | 47%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | – | 0 | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | – | 0 | 38%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | – | 0 | 37%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | – | 0 | 82%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | – | 0 | 72%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | – | 0 | 70%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics | No | – | 0 | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| BBC | No | – | 0 | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | No | – | 0 | 56%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Manhattan | No | – | 0 | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | – | 0 | 55%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Fat Shot / Ozempic | No | – | 0 | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – | |
| Elon / Musk | No | – | 0 | 44%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 42%n=192 from settlement history | – |
| Argentina | No | – | 0 | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 32%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | – | 0 | 24%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 21%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-25DEC01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP