Donald Trump: Weekly window, Aug 16, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
8 known appearances6 of 8 known appearances transcribed Window: Aug 10, 2026 to Aug 17, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 182 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (20 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Aug 10, 2026 Remarks During a Telerally for South Carolina Republican Senatorial Candidate Senator Darline Graham Nordone Official transcript
- Aug 10, 2026 Remarks During a Telerally for Wisconsin Republican Congressional Candidate Michael Alfonso Official transcript
- Aug 10, 2026 Remarks on Signing an Executive Order on Childhood Vaccine Schedule Recommendations and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Aug 11, 2026 Donald Trump: Real America's Voice interview transcript pending
- Aug 11, 2026 Remarks and an Exchange With Reporters Upon Arrival at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland Official transcript
- Aug 13, 2026 Donald Trump: Announcement transcript pending
- Aug 14, 2026 Remarks on Law Enforcement in Garden City, New York Official transcript
- Aug 14, 2026 Remarks and an Exchange With Reporters Prior to Departure From Joint Base Andrews, Maryland Official transcript
Markets
31 words · 19 settled yes · our count agreed on 16 of 16- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transgender | Yes | 7 | 9 | ✓ | 73%n=207 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | Yes | 7 | 15 | ✓ | 22%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 68%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 58%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 85%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 80%n=151 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 74%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 72%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | 2 | 8 | ✓ | 66%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 43%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 58%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 55%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 55%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 54%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 49%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 45%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | – | 1 | – | 67%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | – | 0 | – | 56%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | Yes | – | 0 | – | 17%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | No | – | 0 | – | 70%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | No | – | 0 | – | 69%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | – | 0 | – | 65%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | – | 0 | – | 57%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | – | 0 | – | 56%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| JD / Vance | No | – | 12 | – | 44%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | – | 0 | – | 37%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | – | 35%n=476 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | – | 0 | – | 29%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | – | 19%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | – | 18%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | – | 17%n=43 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP