Donald Trump: Weekly window, Oct 11, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Polymarket What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)
Coverage
7 known appearances0 of 7 known appearances transcribed Window: Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 12, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 85 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (13 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Oct 5, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Nebraska transcript pending
- Oct 6, 2026 Donald Trump: Remarks at Anduril Industries transcript pending
- Oct 7, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Texas transcript pending
- Oct 7, 2026 Donald Trump: Announcement transcript pending
- Oct 8, 2026 Donald Trump: Science Summit remarks transcript pending
- Oct 9, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in New York transcript pending
- Oct 10, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Tennessee transcript pending
Markets
54 words · 30 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nobel | Yes | 9 | 13 | ✓ | 31%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 72%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 67%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 58%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 41%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 86%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 83%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%n=243 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 76%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 61%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Superintelligence / Super Intelligence | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 26%n=121 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | – | 86%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | – | 0 | – | 75%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / Canadian | Yes | – | 0 | – | 74%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | – | 0 | – | 74%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | – | 72%n=185 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | – | 0 | – | 61%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | – | 0 | – | 59%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | – | 0 | – | 58%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Voter ID | Yes | – | 0 | – | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Dictionary | Yes | 0 | 0 | – | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Secret Service | Yes | 0 | 0 | – | 54%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | Yes | – | 0 | – | 49%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | – | 49%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Blowing it away | Yes | 0 | 0 | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Complex | Yes | 0 | 0 | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Eight Wars | Yes | 0 | 0 | – | 46%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | Yes | – | 0 | – | 30%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | Yes | – | 0 | – | 17%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | No | – | 0 | – | 66%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | – | 0 | – | 65%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | – | 0 | – | 56%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Cybersecurity / Cyber Security | No | – | 0 | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kim Jong Un | No | 0 | 0 | – | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Pig / Piggy | No | 0 | 0 | – | 50%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| NFL | No | 0 | 0 | – | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Plumber | No | 0 | 0 | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Psychological / Psychologically | No | 0 | 0 | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ammunition | No | 0 | 0 | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Third Term | No | – | 0 | – | 46%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Witch | No | 0 | 0 | – | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Too Late | No | 0 | 0 | – | 45%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | – | 0 | – | 44%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Gay | No | 0 | 0 | – | 39%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | – | 34%n=520 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | No | – | 0 | – | 26%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | – | 26%n=138 from settlement history | – |
| Make Iran Great Again | No | – | 0 | – | 20%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | – | 18%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | – | 17%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | – | 0 | – | 16%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | – | 12%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | – | 12%n=58 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26OCT12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP