Donald Trump: Weekly window, Jul 26, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
9 known appearances8 of 9 known appearances transcribed Window: Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 27, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 127 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (17 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Jul 20, 2026 Donald Trump: Announcement transcript pending
- Jul 21, 2026 Remarks in an Exchange With Reporters During a Greeting With President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon Official transcript
- Jul 21, 2026 Remarks in an Exchange With Reporters Prior to a Meeting With President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Jul 22, 2026 Remarks in Marietta, Georgia Official transcript
- Jul 22, 2026 Remarks and an Exchange With Reporters Prior to Departure From Joint Base Andrews, Maryland Official transcript
- Jul 23, 2026 Remarks in a Roundtable Discussion on the Ratepayer Protection Pledge Official transcript
- Jul 23, 2026 Remarks Honoring the 2025 World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers Official transcript
- Jul 24, 2026 Remarks on United States Nuclear Innovation and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Jul 24, 2026 Remarks at the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner Official transcript
Markets
30 words · 21 settled yes · our count agreed on 21 of 21- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Account | Yes | 11 | 16 | ✓ | 61%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | 10 | 12 | ✓ | 45%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 73%n=174 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 63%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 46%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 83%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 17%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 79%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 64%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 68%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Gianni / Infantino | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 66%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 60%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 80%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 68%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 64%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 54%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 2 | 5 | ✓ | 52%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 35%n=442 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 62%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 41%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 13%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | – | 0 | – | 58%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | – | 0 | – | 57%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| ISIS | No | – | 0 | – | 57%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| American Flag Blue | No | – | 0 | – | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | – | 0 | – | 26%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | – | 26%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | – | 22%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | – | 22%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 1 | – | 15%n=43 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26JUL27 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP