Donald Trump: Weekly window, Jul 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Polymarket What will Trump say this week? (July 13 - July 19)
Coverage
12 known appearances8 of 12 known appearances transcribed Window: Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 20, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 154 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (15 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Jul 13, 2026 Donald Trump: Fox & Friends no transcript source yet
- Jul 13, 2026 Donald Trump: Newsmax: Greg Kelly Reports no transcript source yet
- Jul 13, 2026 Remarks at the Freedom 250 Grand Prix Showcase Official transcript
- Jul 13, 2026 Remarks on Signing Proclamations Modifying National Monument Designations and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Jul 14, 2026 Donald Trump: Fox News: Special Report no transcript source yet
- Jul 14, 2026 Remarks Prior to a Meeting With Prime Minister Ali Falih Kadhim al-Zaydi of Iraq and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Jul 14, 2026 Remarks in an Exchange With Reporters During a Greeting With Prime Minister Ali Falih Kadhim al-Zaydi of Iraq Official transcript
- Jul 14, 2026 Donald Trump: Hugh Hewitt Radio Show no transcript source yet
- Jul 15, 2026 Remarks at the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit in Carlisle, Pennsylvania Official transcript
- Jul 16, 2026 Address to the Nation on Election Reforms Official transcript
- Jul 17, 2026 Remarks at a Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) Reception in New York City Official transcript
- Jul 19, 2026 Remarks and an Exchange With Reporters Upon Arrival at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland Official transcript
Markets
50 words · 30 settled yes · our count agreed on 24 of 25- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianni / Infantino | Yes | 17 | 17 | ✓ | 67%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crazy | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 10 | 11 | ✓ | 56%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 84%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Great Leader | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | 7 | 8 | ✓ | 47%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Spain | Yes | 7 | 10 | ✓ | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 77%n=166 from settlement history | – |
| Patriot | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 67%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Protect America / Save America | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Outside | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| God | Yes | 3 | 6 | ✓ | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 43%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Truth | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 65%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 14%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 83%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 66%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 64%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 63%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 61%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Graham / Platner | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Central Casting | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | – | 70%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | – | 0 | – | 64%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | – | 1 | – | 62%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Mitch / McConnell | Yes | – | 0 | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | – | 0 | – | 48%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | Yes | – | 0 | – | 40%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 45%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | No | – | 3 | – | 80%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Predict | No | – | 0 | – | 62%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | – | 0 | – | 61%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | – | 0 | – | 60%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| American Flag Blue | No | – | 0 | – | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Belgium | No | – | 0 | – | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | – | 0 | – | 40%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | – | 38%n=124 from settlement history | – |
| Fertilizer | No | – | 0 | – | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | – | 36%n=433 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left Lunatic | No | – | 0 | – | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Beer | No | – | 0 | – | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Female | No | – | 0 | – | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | – | 28%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | – | 0 | – | 28%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | – | 24%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | – | 23%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | No | – | 0 | – | 18%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | – | 13%n=49 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26JUL20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP