Donald Trump: Weekly window, Jul 5, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
10 known appearances7 of 10 known appearances transcribed Window: Jun 29, 2026 to Jul 6, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 178 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (24 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Jun 29, 2026 Remarks on Signing a Memorandum on Lowering the Cost of Living by Promoting the Freedom To Fix and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Jul 1, 2026 Donald Trump: Burning Hills Amphitheater on July 1 transcript pending
- Jul 1, 2026 Remarks and an Exchange With Reporters at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland Official transcript
- Jul 1, 2026 Remarks on Presenting Theodore Roosevelt's Medal of Honor to the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library in Medora, North Dakota Official transcript
- Jul 1, 2026 Remarks at the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library in Medora, North Dakota Official transcript
- Jul 1, 2026 Remarks During a Tour of the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library in Medora, North Dakota Official transcript
- Jul 2, 2026 Donald Trump: CNBC: Fast Money no transcript source yet
- Jul 3, 2026 Remarks at Mount Rushmore in Keystone, South Dakota Official transcript
- Jul 4, 2026 Donald Trump: July 4th rally no transcript source yet
- Jul 4, 2026 Remarks at an Independence Day Celebration Official transcript
Markets
31 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 8- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 7 | 8 | ✓ | 84%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 83%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 76%n=269 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 79%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 66%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Pulte | Yes | 4 | 7 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 4 | 9 | ✓ | 55%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| 22 | Yes | 1 | 9 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transgender | Yes | – | 1 | – | 79%n=155 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | – | 68%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| 50,000 | Yes | – | 0 | – | 67%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | – | 0 | – | 56%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | – | 0 | – | 56%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | – | 31%n=416 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | No | – | 0 | – | 68%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | – | 0 | – | 68%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | – | 0 | – | 65%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | – | 0 | – | 64%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | – | 0 | – | 60%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | No | – | 0 | – | 55%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| American Flag Blue | No | – | 2 | – | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | – | 0 | – | 50%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | – | 1 | – | 49%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | – | 41%n=122 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | – | 37%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | – | 0 | – | 32%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | – | 28%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | – | 27%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | No | – | 0 | – | 20%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 1 | – | 16%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | – | 14%n=47 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26JUL06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP