Donald Trump: Weekly window, Feb 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Feb 9, 2026 to Feb 16, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
26 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 81%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | 70%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 70%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | – | 0 | 69%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | – | 0 | 68%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Somalia / Somali / Somalian | Yes | – | 0 | 65%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 61%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Discombobulator | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | 51%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | – | 0 | 45%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | – | 0 | 39%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | No | – | 0 | 86%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | No | – | 0 | 76%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | No | – | 0 | 73%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| IQ | No | – | 0 | 72%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | No | – | 0 | 72%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Cookie | No | – | 0 | 70%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics | No | – | 0 | 65%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | No | – | 0 | 64%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | – | 0 | 48%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Paid Agitator | No | – | 0 | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | 39%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 36%n=265 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | – | 0 | 35%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 19%n=25 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26FEB16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP