Donald Trump: Weekly window, May 17, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: May 11, 2026 to May 18, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
31 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50,000 | Yes | – | 0 | 82%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 82%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 79%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 78%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | – | 0 | 75%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Mutilation / Mutilization | Yes | – | 0 | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | – | 0 | 69%n=222 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | – | 0 | 67%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | Yes | – | 0 | 63%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | – | 0 | 62%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | 62%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | – | 0 | 61%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | – | 0 | 56%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | – | 0 | 54%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | – | 0 | 75%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | – | 0 | 73%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | No | – | 0 | 68%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | No | – | 0 | 67%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Warsh | No | – | 0 | 64%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | – | 0 | 53%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | 49%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pope | No | – | 0 | 45%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | – | 0 | 45%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | No | – | 0 | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 36%n=361 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | 29%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Discombobulator | No | – | 0 | 18%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 17%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | 13%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | – | 0 | 12%n=23 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26MAY18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP