Donald Trump: Weekly window, Aug 9, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Polymarket What will Trump say this week? (August 3 - August 9)
Coverage
10 known appearances7 of 10 known appearances transcribed Window: Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 10, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 211 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (19 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Aug 3, 2026 Remarks on Signing the Executive Order Establishing the President's Military Spouse Commission and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Aug 4, 2026 Donald Trump: Fox News at Night no transcript source yet
- Aug 4, 2026 Donald Trump: Announcement transcript pending
- Aug 4, 2026 Remarks in an Exchange With Reporters Prior to Departure From Los Angeles, California Official transcript
- Aug 5, 2026 Remarks in Las Vegas, Nevada Official transcript
- Aug 6, 2026 Donald Trump: Punchbowl News interview transcript pending
- Aug 6, 2026 Remarks During a Telerally for Wyoming Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Megan Degenfelder Official transcript
- Aug 6, 2026 Remarks at a Reception for United States Olympic and Paralympic Athletes and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Aug 6, 2026 Remarks Following a Document Signing Ceremony on Semiconductor Supply and Citizenship and Immigration and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Aug 7, 2026 Remarks During a Roundtable Discussion on United States Mining at the Department of State Official transcript
Markets
44 words · 23 settled yes · our count agreed on 21 of 21- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 15 | 20 | ✓ | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 71%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 67%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Who Are You | Yes | 6 | 8 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 74%n=199 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 54%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 84%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 74%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | Yes | 4 | 7 | ✓ | 73%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 80%n=142 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 3 | 5 | ✓ | 60%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Squalor | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 56%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 61%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Through The Roof | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 59%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 70%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | 1 | 7 | ✓ | 70%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer / Golfing | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 53%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Make America Great Again | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 51%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Pearl Harbor | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | – | 36%n=468 from settlement history | – |
| No No No | Yes | – | 0 | – | 31%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | – | 0 | – | 68%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Mar-a-Lago | No | – | 0 | – | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | – | 0 | – | 59%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | – | 0 | – | 57%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | – | 0 | – | 52%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | – | 0 | – | 52%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | – | 0 | – | 49%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | No | – | 0 | – | 45%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | – | 2 | – | 43%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | No | – | 0 | – | 42%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | – | 0 | – | 42%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | – | 0 | – | 40%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| American Flag Blue | No | – | 0 | – | 36%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | – | 0 | – | 24%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | No | – | 0 | – | 23%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | – | 21%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | – | 1 | – | 21%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | – | 20%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | – | 19%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | – | 18%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | – | 17%n=54 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP