Donald Trump: Weekly window, Jan 25, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Coverage
1 known appearances1 of 1 known appearance transcribed Window: Jan 19, 2026 to Jan 26, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
26 words · 22 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somalia / Somali / Somalian | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 61%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 82%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | 5 | 6 | ✓ | 80%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 65%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 56%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Stimulus / Dividend | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 51%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 59%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 44%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 78%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| IQ | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 73%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 73%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 57%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | Yes | – | 0 | – | 66%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Olympics | Yes | – | 0 | – | 65%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | – | 64%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | – | 61%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | – | 58%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | – | 56%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | – | 51%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | – | 31%n=235 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | Yes | – | 0 | – | 27%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | – | 0 | – | 73%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | – | 0 | – | 54%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | – | 30%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | – | 22%n=21 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26JAN26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP