Donald Trump: Weekly window, Mar 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Polymarket What will Trump say this week (March 15)?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Mar 9, 2026 to Mar 16, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
56 words · 36 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | – | 0 | 82%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | – | 0 | 75%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 75%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | Yes | – | 0 | 73%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | – | 0 | 71%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | – | 0 | 69%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | Yes | – | 0 | 66%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | Yes | – | 0 | 65%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | – | 0 | 65%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 65%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Thug | Yes | – | 0 | 64%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Ass / Shit | Yes | – | 0 | 59%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Et cetera / Etc. | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World Cup | Yes | – | 0 | 57%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Predict / Prediction | Yes | – | 0 | 55%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Central Casting | Yes | – | 0 | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged / Stolen | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Cookie | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala / Harris | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=163 from settlement history | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | – | 0 | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Stock market | Yes | – | 0 | 51%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Television / TV | Yes | – | 0 | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | – | 0 | 49%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | – | 0 | 47%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | – | 0 | 47%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Delcy / Rodriguez | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| UFC / World Cup | Yes | – | 0 | 45%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | – | 0 | 44%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Hang / Hanging | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| President Xi | Yes | – | 0 | 36%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | – | 0 | 27%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| 50,000 | No | – | 0 | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer | No | – | 0 | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hat | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stupid Question | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nancy / Pelosi | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | – | 0 | 53%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| MIGA / Make Iran Great Again | No | – | 0 | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | – | 0 | 50%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Islamic Revolutionary Guard / Iranian Revolutionary Guard | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Churchill | No | – | 0 | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy | No | – | 0 | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Discombobulator | No | – | 0 | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Regime change | No | – | 0 | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 36%n=298 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | – | 0 | 34%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | – | 0 | 32%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Peanut | No | – | 0 | 27%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | – | 0 | 26%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 0 | 20%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | 15%n=30 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26MAR16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP