Donald Trump: Weekly window, Oct 25, 2026

By Oct 25Weekly windowHistory onlyDonald Trump

Updated

Coverage

10 known appearances
5 of 10 known appearances transcribed Window: Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 26, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 193 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (63 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.

Markets

38 words · 15 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Ilhan / Omar Yes1923✓65%n=2 from settlement history–
Barack Hussein Obama Yes1515✓74%n=196 from settlement history–
Golf / Golfer / Golfing Yes1112✓85%n=22 from settlement history–
Nobel Yes1112✓30%n=45 from settlement history–
Dividend / Stimulus Yes99✓84%n=35 from settlement history–
Vivek / Ramaswamy Yes921✓68%n=4 from settlement history–
Diesel Yes913✓55%n=5 from settlement history–
Sleepy Joe Yes89✓88%n=130 from settlement history–
Melania Yes810✓71%n=89 from settlement history–
Blockade Yes55✓65%n=35 from settlement history–
Superintelligence / Super Intelligence Yes22✓72%n=3 from settlement history–
Ethanol Yes22✓47%n=3 from settlement history–
Third Term Yes22✓43%n=24 from settlement history–
Moon Yes–0–61%n=37 from settlement history–
Soleimani Yes–0–21%n=23 from settlement history–
Cuba / Cuban open55–50%n=33 from settlement history100¢ Kalshi
Cybersecurity / Cyber Security open11–38%n=2 from settlement history100¢ Kalshi
Rigged Election / Stolen Election open–0–64%n=52 from settlement history55¢ Kalshi
Houthi open–0–63%n=7 from settlement history20¢ Kalshi
Bibi / Netanyahu open–1–62%n=72 from settlement history68¢ Kalshi
Ranked Choice / Ranked-Choice open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability10¢ Kalshi
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome open–0–60%n=60 from settlement history36¢ Kalshi
Tomahawk open–0–59%n=10 from settlement history22¢ Kalshi
Autopen / Auto Pen open–0–52%n=66 from settlement history28¢ Kalshi
Zacharia open–0––n=1 too little history for a probability8¢ Kalshi
Zohran / Mamdani open–0–43%n=46 from settlement history20¢ Kalshi
Stupid Question open–0–35%n=34 from settlement history18¢ Kalshi
Antifa open–0–34%n=30 from settlement history7¢ Kalshi
Ceasefire open–0–31%n=128 from settlement history100¢ Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin open–0–30%n=521 from settlement history6¢ Kalshi
Epstein open–0–23%n=141 from settlement history4¢ Kalshi
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis open–0–20%n=67 from settlement history8¢ Kalshi
Make Iran Great Again open–0–16%n=15 from settlement history2¢ Kalshi
Prediction Market / Predictive Market open–0–16%n=26 from settlement history2¢ Kalshi
Golden Dome open–0–14%n=58 from settlement history6¢ Kalshi
Peace in the Middle East open–0–11%n=52 from settlement history10¢ Kalshi
UFO / UAP open–0–11%n=34 from settlement history8¢ Kalshi
Uranium open–0–10%n=60 from settlement history4¢ Kalshi

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26OCT26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP