Donald Trump: Weekly window, Jul 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say this week?
Polymarket What will Trump say this week? (July 6 - July 12)
Coverage
9 known appearances8 of 9 known appearances transcribed Window: Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 13, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 116 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (12 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Jul 6, 2026 Remarks on the Trump Accounts Children's Savings Program and an Exchange With Reporters Official transcript
- Jul 6, 2026 Remarks at a Rose Garden Club Lunch Official transcript
- Jul 7, 2026 Remarks Prior to a Meeting With President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and an Exchange With Reporters in Ankara, Turkey Official transcript
- Jul 8, 2026 The President's News Conference in Ankara, Turkey Official transcript
- Jul 8, 2026 Remarks Prior to a Meeting With President Ahmad Husayn al-Shara' of Syria and an Exchange With Reporters in Ankara, Turkey Official transcript
- Jul 8, 2026 Remarks and an Exchange With Reporters Aboard Air Force One En Route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland Official transcript
- Jul 8, 2026 Remarks During a Greeting With Secretary General Mark Rutte of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and an Exchange With Reporters in Ankara, Turkey Official transcript
- Jul 8, 2026 Remarks Prior to a Meeting With President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine and an Exchange With Reporters in Ankara, Turkey Official transcript
- Jul 9, 2026 Donald Trump: Freedom 250 Grand Prix Showcase transcript pending
Markets
52 words · 28 settled yes · our count agreed on 27 of 27- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 18 | 20 | ✓ | 29%n=425 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 17 | 23 | ✓ | 59%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Patriot | Yes | 13 | 20 | ✓ | 61%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 58%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 10 | 15 | ✓ | 42%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | 9 | 11 | ✓ | 65%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Gianni / Infantino | Yes | 9 | 11 | ✓ | 61%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Grass | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Truth | Yes | 6 | 8 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Great Leader | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 79%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Red Card | Yes | 5 | 7 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Outside | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 58%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 84%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 76%n=276 from settlement history | – |
| Through The Roof | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Cancer | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| 50,000 | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 69%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 68%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 58%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 42%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Ronaldo | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Mount Rushmore | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pass | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Protect America / Save America | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Messi | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Police | Yes | – | 0 | – | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | – | 0 | – | 84%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | – | 0 | – | 78%n=161 from settlement history | – |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | No | – | 0 | – | 69%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | – | 0 | – | 68%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | No | – | 0 | – | 64%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | – | 0 | – | 62%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | – | 0 | – | 56%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| American Flag Blue | No | – | 0 | – | 56%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Goal | No | – | 1 | – | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | – | 0 | – | 50%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | – | 0 | – | 48%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | – | 0 | – | 48%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Fertilizer | No | – | 0 | – | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left Lunatic | No | – | 0 | – | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | – | 0 | – | 39%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Beer | No | – | 0 | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Female | No | – | 0 | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| UFO / UAP | No | – | 0 | – | 30%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | – | 0 | – | 30%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | – | 0 | – | 26%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | No | – | 0 | – | 25%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | No | – | 0 | – | 19%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | – | 1 | – | 15%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | – | 0 | – | 13%n=48 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAY-26JUL13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP