Donald Trump: Remarks, Nov 25, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his executive order signing?
Polymarket What will Trump say at the Thanksgiving Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?
Markets
40 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear / B-2 | Yes | 55%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 54%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Job 5+ times | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | 45%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| America / American 8+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gobble / Waddle 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pardon / Pardoned 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank / Thanks 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Turkey 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Farmer | Yes | 37%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy / Autism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | No | 71%n=111 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 69%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 67%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 65%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 56%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 54%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 52%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 51%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 48%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 47%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Putin / Zelensky | No | 46%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Recep Tayyip / Erdoğan | No | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 44%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Turkey | No | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Cartel | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 42%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 42%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Radical Left | No | 40%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Honey | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pilgrim | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rock / Scissors | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 37%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| New York / Mayor | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 30%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 29%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 11%n=193 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP