Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 3, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his announcement?
Markets
21 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 72%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 71%n=117 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 68%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 65%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 63%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 55%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 53%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 44%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| One Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 32%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 55%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 51%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 47%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 42%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Wealth / Wealthy | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | 41%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Dead Country | No | 36%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 29%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 28%n=23 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP