Donald Trump: Remarks, May 21, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Meeting with the President of South Africa?
Polymarket What will Trump say during events with South African President on May 21?
Markets
30 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Yes | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Congo | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Africa 8+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| White farmer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| G20 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Genocide | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hell | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trade | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | No | 62%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Steve / Witkoff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hamas | No | 43%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Mineral | No | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | No | 43%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 42%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Starlink | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Brutal / Brutally | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Race | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Watch list | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tesla | No | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Afrikaners | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Discrimination | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Equity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Expropriation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Refugee | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanction | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| BRICS | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Roof | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=90 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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