Donald Trump: Keynote, Jun 16, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at his Meeting with Zelenskyy at the G7 Summit?
Markets
20 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Putin | No | 56%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Deal | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mineral | No | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crimea | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Body | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Donbas | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Javelin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Soldier | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Suit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank You | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tough | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vatican | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| White House | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | 41%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 36%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Security | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 31%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTUKRG7-25JUN16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP