Donald Trump: Posts, week ending Aug 2, 2026
In the week ending Aug 2, 2026, Donald Trump posted 9 of the 17 words Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 17 settlements.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 9 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crime | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 77%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Gold / Golden | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 72%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 52%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Lindsey / Graham | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 49%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 63%n=171 from settlement history | – |
| Communist | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 56%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%n=178 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Pope | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Scam | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Football | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Wall Street | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%n=455 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Posts
counts only; post text is not shownTruth Social posts by @realDonaldTrump, via CNN's public archive · The posts
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-08-02:posts_window · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-08-02:posts_window · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP