Donald Trump: Press conference, Mar 12, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during presser with Ireland PM on Wednesday?
Markets
19 words · 5 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| God 2+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hell 3+ times | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Heritage | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Saint Patrick | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beautiful 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | No | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | No | 56%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| NATO 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel | No | 48%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Tax 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | No | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ireland 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jew / Jewish 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Letter | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Saudi Arabia | No | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 23%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 10%n=65 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-presser-with-ireland-pm-on-friday · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP