Donald Trump: Remarks, Aug 8, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the President's Remarks?
Markets
50 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 75%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 62%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Patriot | Yes | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Veteran | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | Yes | 38%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| George Washington | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | 81%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| India | No | 62%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 60%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 60%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| EU / European Union | No | 56%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Apple | No | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 53%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Chip | No | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 53%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 52%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 51%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 49%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 48%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 47%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 45%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Fed / Federal Reserve | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Genius | No | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Georgia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake News | No | 41%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 40%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | No | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Dead Couuntry | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Intel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kevins | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lincoln | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| South Park | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transgender | No | 35%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| CNN | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| DEI | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MSDNC | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sydney Sweeney | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Boom | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Golden | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 32%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | No | 31%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 30%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla | No | 29%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 28%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Immigration | No | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | No | 15%n=105 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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