Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 17, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Hanukkah Reception?
Polymarket What will Trump say during the address on December 17?
Markets
41 words · 23 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | 73%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 65%n=130 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 62%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 60%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 58%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War / Eighth War | Yes | 56%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 55%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Christmas | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 51%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 51%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 50%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Terrible / Horrible | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bibi | Yes | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 46%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 43%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Gaza | Yes | 42%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Bondi / Australia / Sydney | Yes | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 40%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Antisemitism / Antisemitic | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Water | Yes | 21%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 67%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 64%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 57%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Hanukkah | No | 56%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Green New Scam | No | 55%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Abraham | No | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| JD / Vance | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Golden Age | No | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Putin / Zelenskyy | No | 47%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| ISIS / Syria | No | 46%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Australia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Venezuela | No | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 39%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Economy | No | 36%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 30%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=208 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP