Donald Trump: Posts, week ending Aug 16, 2026
In the week ending Aug 16, 2026, Donald Trump posted 6 of the 10 words Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 10 settlements.
UpdatedMarkets
10 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 10 of 10- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crime | Yes | 53 | 57 | ✓ | 80%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 60%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Scam | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 36%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 67%n=175 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 71%n=182 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 46%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 13%n=43 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Posts
counts only; post text is not shownTruth Social posts by @realDonaldTrump, via CNN's public archive · The posts
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-08-16:posts_window · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-08-16:posts_window · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP