Donald Trump: Remarks, Jun 5, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at his next bilateral meeting with a foreign leader?
Markets
25 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 74%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 72%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 63%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 63%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 51%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 51%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trade | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pipeline | Yes | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 37%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Defense | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AfD / Alternative for Germany | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Asylum | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Berlin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Free Speech | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Munich | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Golf | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Security | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Paris | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| G7 | No | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 34%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | No | 31%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | 31%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBILATERALMENTION-25NOV30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP