Donald Trump: G7 events, Jun 15, 2026
In remarks on Jun 15, 2026, Donald Trump said 22 of the 32 words Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
32 words · 22 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 57%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 56%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Steve / Witkoff | Yes | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 46%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 45%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War / Nine War / Ninth War | Yes | 45%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Memorandum | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Qatar / Qatari | Yes | 45%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 41%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Prince | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Putin | Yes | 40%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| World War | Yes | 39%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Field Marshal / Prime Minister | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good Deal / Great Deal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Versailles | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Africa | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 37%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Brazil | Yes | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 35%n=164 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | 34%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | Yes | 31%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| J.D. / Vance | Yes | 30%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 66%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Normandy | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Lion / Bear | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bonjour | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Madame / Madam / Mademoiselle | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World Peace / Peace On Earth | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Paper Tiger | No | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| No No No | No | 29%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 26%n=79 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-06-15:remarks-g7 · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-06-15:remarks-g7 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP