Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 18, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Bilateral with Zelensky?
Markets
28 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 83%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 68%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 66%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 66%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 62%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 56%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 54%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tomahawk | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | Yes | 45%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 19%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 18%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | No | 64%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 61%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Moscow | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 52%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | 48%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | No | 47%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 47%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| New York | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Dead Country | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 38%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | No | 38%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Department of War | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crimea | No | 31%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 16%n=20 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP