Donald Trump: Speech, Jun 21, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Address to the Nation
Markets
24 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peace | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 53%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Success/Successful | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America/American | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fordow | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Isfahan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Natanz | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 41%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Make America Great Again | No | 62%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| War | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia | No | 51%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Dog | No | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 2 week | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ayatollah | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bunker Buster | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Khamenei | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Surrender | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Victory | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Negotiation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gabbard | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 35%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25JUN21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP